This task links to the Course Assessment Specification (CAS): The dominant ideas within or between political parties.

One dominant idea of the SNP is constitutional reform.

The UK constitution - including the union between Scotland and England - is a matter reserved to Westminster by law.

However, it could be argued that reservation does not explicitly prevent Holyrood from consulting the public on independence. Then again, a "yes" vote in any referendum would create an expectation that major constitutional change would follow, as it did in the advisory vote on Brexit.

Scottish independence was a dominant issue in the May 2021 Scottish parliament election. Both the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Scottish Conservatives placed the issue at the centre of their campaigns. Scottish voters were first asked whether they wanted Scotland to become an independent country in a referendum in September 2014: the result was 55% to 45% against. 

The issue of independence has been put back onto the agenda by Brexit – Scotland voted 62% to 38% in favour of Remain in the EU referendum – and particularly once it became apparent that the UK government planned to take the UK out of the EU single market and customs union.

Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is widely interpreted to mean that any referendum relating to Scottish independence would require Westminster’s approval. However, this has never been tested in court, so there remains some uncertainty about whether Holyrood could hold an ‘advisory’ referendum (in which the Scottish electorate were asked whether they supported the principle of independence but did not mandate independence itself) without consent.

The power to hold the 2014 referendum was transferred in 2012 after the UK and Scottish governments signed the Edinburgh Agreement. The UK parliament passed a ‘Section 30 order’ – which gave the Scottish parliament the power to legislate for the referendum— which “put beyond doubt” the legality of the vote. The power was only transferred on a temporary basis.

The Scottish government has never explicitly conceded that a referendum could not be held without Westminster’s authorisation. But its preference is to proceed with agreement, since any unauthorised referendum could be blocked in the Supreme Court or simply boycotted by unionist parties.

In the lead up to the May 2021 Scottish Parliament General Election, the SNP declared that if the party won a simple majority in the Scottish Parliament “there can be no moral or democratic justification for Boris Johnson or any Westminster government to obstruct the right of the people of Scotland to decide their own future. We propose that the referendum should be held once the Covid crisis has passed but in good time to decide that we want to equip our Parliament with the powers it needs to drive our long-term recovery from Covid.”

In March 2021, the Scottish government introduced a draft Independence Referendum Bill, which if passed, would mandate a second vote on independence to be held.

The SNP also published a “road to a referendum” document setting out its planned next steps. The party is expected to request a new Section 30 order – which would transfer the power to hold a second independence referendum to the Scottish parliament– from the UK government. This would ensure that the Scottish parliament could then pass its referendum bill without fear of legal challenge.

However, if that request is refused, then the SNP will seek to pass its referendum bill using the Scottish parliament’s existing powers. In that scenario, the bill would almost certainly be referred by the UK government to the Supreme Court, which would be asked to determine whether it lay within the legislative powers of the Scottish parliament. If the Supreme Court ruled against the Scottish government, then the bill would be prevented from becoming law. The SNP has not stated what its next move would be in this circumstance.

The impact of this dominant idea on the support of and electoral performance of the SNP.

Opinion polls

Immediately after the EU referendum (2016), the polls indicated a swing towards support for independence. However, this support was not sustained, and most polls between 2016 and 2018 found that a narrow but clear majority would vote against independence. 

The polls then appeared to narrow throughout 2019 and the start of 2020, with polling experts citing Brexit as a key factor in the rise in support for independence.

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, support for independence has risen further with most polls in 2020 and 2021 showing a clearer majority in favour of a Yes vote, including by a record margin of 59% to 41% in an October 2020 Ipsos Mori poll. 

However, as the election approached the polls narrowed again. In the 10 polls conducted in the two weeks before the election, Yes was only ahead in one.

Independence was viewed as the most important issue by fewer than one in five people according to poll data published in April 2021 in The Herald.

The poll, carried out by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman put independence as the most important issue for just 19% of respondents, and down from a high of 23% in the same series of polls.  

Only 19% of those partaking in the poll said that independence was one of the top issues facing Scotland. 

When asked to pick their three “most important issues facing Scotland” 45% of Scots said health, 35% picked employment and welfare, 31% opted for education, and 25% said Brexit. Independence was on 19% with the environment on 17% and housing on 16%.

Support from the union and independence was tied at 50% once don't knows had been excluded but showed that 38% were keen on a referendum in the next two years, with 53% saying a second vote should happen within the next five years or sooner.

2021 election results

In the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2021 the Scottish National Party won the most seats (64 of 129) with 44.2% of the vote, but failed to win an overall majority. The total number of SNP MSPs elected was one more than in 2016.

The Conservatives gained the second largest share of the vote (22.8%), winning 31 seats, which was the same number as in 2016. Labour took 19.8% of the vote, which was lower than in 2016 (20.8%) and won 22 seats, 2 fewer than in 2016.The Liberal Democrats took 6.0% of the vote and lost 1 seat, finishing on 4 seats. The Green Party took 4.7% of the total vote but finished with 8 seats, 2 more than in 2016.

TASKS

1. Summarise the SNP’s dominant idea of constitutional reform.
2. Give a detailed example of an SNP policy that relates to this dominant idea.
3. How significant was this dominant idea in the electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election? You should use polling and electoral data to support your argument. 
4. Are there other interpretations (excluding the dominant idea of constitutional reform) of the reasons for the electoral success of the SNP?

This task links to the Course Assessment Specification (CAS): The dominant ideas within or between political parties.

One dominant idea of the SNP is social justice and fairness.

The SNP claim to be a political party committed to reducing inequality through their socially progressive policies. The SNP believe that this dominant idea is a way to transform Scotland into a fairer nation that is recognised for its global responsibility, progressiveness and social conscience. Some of these policies include:

1. Baby Box – Giving every baby born in Scotland the best start in life by providing families with a Baby Box, filled with essential items needed in the first six months of a child’s life.
2. Childcare – 600 hours of early learning and childcare, saving families up to £2,500 per child per year. In August 2020, over 60% of funded children were accessing 1,140 hours, worth around £4,500 per child per year.
3. Free Tuition – Students in England face tuition fees up to £27,750 – Scottish students receive university tuition free.
4. Period Poverty – Scotland is the first in the world to make sanitary products available to all those who need them, free of charge.
5. Record high health funding – Our latest health and care portfolio spending will exceed £16 billion, with resource funding up by over 60% under the SNP.
6. Free prescriptions – Prescription charges abolished in Scotland – now £9.35 per item south of the border.
7. Cheaper Council Tax – Every Scottish household benefits from cheaper tax bills – on average £450 less than England, and we’re delivering a national council tax freeze.
8. Care For All – Free personal and nursing care extended to everyone who needs it, regardless of age.
9. Free Bus Travel – Over one million Scots now enjoy free bus travel across the country, including under-19s, over-60s and disabled people – and we’re now expanding it further to all under-22s.
10. Scottish Child Payment – New benefit for families, the only one of its kind in the UK, has been called “game-changing” by anti-poverty campaigners, and will help lift around 30,000 children out of poverty.

The impact of this dominant idea on the support of and electoral performance of the SNP.

2021 election results

In the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP retained control of the nine Glasgow constituencies. 184,000 Glaswegians - 29% of the city’s population - reside in the most deprived 10% of areas in Scotland, and nearly half of Glasgow’s residents - 280,000 people (44%) - reside in the most deprived 20% of areas.

In contrast, 37,000 people (6% of the population) live in the least deprived 10% of areas in Scotland. Despite these stark figures, the level of relative deprivation in Glasgow compared to the rest of Scotland has reduced over recent years.

Politics.co.uk reported that the SNP’s secure grip on Glasgow is in large part due to a strong pro-independence sentiment, which is absent in Edinburgh.

Covid-19

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in Scotland soared during the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed that 188,185 people in the country were claiming unemployment benefit this April. In Glasgow, the number of people claiming unemployment benefit took a dramatic leap from 19,655 in January (4.4%) to 31,600 in April (7.1%).

(Nationally, there were 2.1 million people who were claiming unemployment benefit in April across the UK - up by 67% from 1.3 million in March.)

Anti-austerity

The term austerity refers to a set of economic policies that a government implements in order to control public sector debt. Governments put austerity measures in place when their public debt is so large that the risk of default or the inability to service the required payments on its obligations becomes a real possibility.

In short, austerity helps bring financial health back to governments.

The anti-austerity movement in the United Kingdom saw major demonstrations throughout 2010s in response to Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government's austerity measures which saw significant reductions in local council budgets, increasing of university tuition fees and reduction of public spending on welfare, education, health and policing, among others. 

A key factor in the successful electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 election may have been the party’s appeal to traditional Labour voters who were attracted by the SNPs anti-austerity message and desire to protect public services and the low-paid. 

TASKS

1. Summarise the SNP’s dominant idea of social justice and fairness.
2. Give a detailed example of an SNP policy that relates to this dominant idea.
3. How significant was this dominant idea in the electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election? You should use data to support your argument. 
4. Are there other interpretations (excluding the dominant idea of social justice and fairness) of the reasons for the electoral success of the SNP?
5. Why is it complex to determine the reasons for the electoral success of the SNP in the 2021 election?

This task links to the Course Assessment Specification (CAS): The dominant ideas within or between political parties.

One dominant idea of the SNP is pro-European-ism. 

The SNP believe that EU membership delivers many social, economic and cultural benefits for individuals, businesses and communities across Scotland. The party believes that the best way to build a more prosperous and equal Scotland is to be a full independent member of the EU.

On 23 June the people of Scotland voted to remain within the European Union and the SNP firmly believes that EU membership is the best option for Scotland

The SNP website states that,

“Brexit undoubtedly changes the way that Scotland engages with the EU, but it will not change the EU’s importance to Scotland, nor our commitment to rejoining the EU as soon  as possible. By rejoining the EU we will create jobs and regain full access to the European Single Market, which is seven times the size of the UK. We will prepare to rejoin the EU by keeping a close relationship with Europe. We will strengthen our Brussels base and make Scotland House (Scottish Government, Scotland Europa, Scottish Enterprise) the hub of our diplomatic representation across Europe.”

The UK leaving the EU has not changed the fact that a newly independent Scotland will not be a member of the EU. To join the EU, it must follow the same application process, as set out in Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), as any other potential applicant.

Article 49 allows any “European State” to apply to become an EU member. So Scotland must resolve its exit from the UK and be established as an independent sovereign state prior to making its formal application to join the EU.

Joining the EU would mean Scotland joining the single market and customs union – and as a result the Anglo-Scottish border would become a new external customs and regulatory frontier for the EU. 

As an EU member, Scotland and its citizens would regain the rights and responsibilities of EU membership removed by Brexit, but as a new member state of the EU it is unlikely that Scotland could negotiate the same UK opt-outs – this means committing to adopting the euro, at least in principle, and to rejoining the common fisheries and agriculture policies.

The EU would probably welcome an application from an independent Scotland, but only if Scottish independence were based on agreement with the UK government. 

Scotland’s path back to EU membership would run via Westminster. Under EU law, Scotland could only formally apply to join the EU once it had secured its independence from the UK, and the whole process could take the best part of a decade.

The SNP’s policy is not to seek to join the Euro, but, instead, to initially use sterling unilaterally (ie without a currency union with the UK) for a transitional period and then to introduce its own currency “as soon as practicable”.

In an independent Scotland, the SNP would seek an opt-out from the Schengen area as part of any process to join the EU. This is because joining the Schengen area would be incompatible with agreeing to continue passport free travel and free movement between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK (and Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands) as part of the Common Travel Area. Ireland and, before it left, the UK are the only EU members who were allowed opt-outs from the Schengen area when it became part of EU law with the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1997.

Sturgeon launched the SNP manifesto in April 2021 which stated a vote for independence would mean “escape from Brexit”.

The impact of this dominant idea on the support of and electoral performance of the SNP.

Independence

Support for another independence referendum has steadily risen in the years since 2016, when the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, a move opposed by more than 62% of Scottish voters. After the Brexit referendum, the SNP argued that Scotland was being pulled out of the E.U. against its will and that this “material change in circumstances” justified another vote on Scottish independence.

The “hard” version of Brexit delivered by the Johnson-led UK government has increased the popularity of nationalism in Scotland and it could be argued that the idea of rejoining the EU as an independent Scotland had a significant impact on the electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 elections.

Sturgeon commented that remaining in the EU would have meant remaining in the single market and this would have protected “jobs, living standards, our economy and public services”.

Political landscape in Scotland

In the May 2021 election the SNP was the only major party that was pro-EU membership. The Scottish Labour Party did not define itself as a party of either nationalists or unionists, while the Scottish Conservatives defended the UK Government in negotiating an EU withdrawal (Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and the majority of Conservative MSPs had to find a way to live with it and make it compatible with their commitment to the Union. Davidson quit as leader in 2019 citing ‘conflict over Brexit’).

Former Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale stated in April 2021 that “after the referendum, Labour voters felt guilty about voting for the union. They had thought it was right, but it wasn’t comfortable. They didn’t like their party working with the Conservatives. The SNP exploited this, to their credit, saying, this is supposed to be the progressive Labour party, and they sided with the Conservatives to sustain the status quo.”

TASKS

1. Summarise the SNP’s pro-European dominant idea.
2. Give a detailed example of an SNP policy that relates to this dominant idea.
3. How significant was this dominant idea in the electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election? You should use data to support your argument. 
4. Are there other interpretations (excluding the pro-European dominant idea) of the reasons for the electoral success of the SNP?
5. Was a vote for the SNP in May 2021 a vote against Brexit?

This task links to the Course Assessment Specification (CAS): The dominant ideas within or between political parties.

One dominant idea of the SNP relates to law and order.

The SNP Scottish Government has taken many steps to ensure Scotland is a safe place to live. Police recorded crime has fallen by 41% between 2006-07 and 2019-20 and is at one of the lowest levels seen since 1974.

Scotland has 1,000 more police officers than were in place in 2007; while the Tories presided over a cut of 20,000.

Despite constraints on Scotland’s public services through a decade of UK austerity, the Scottish Government has increased the policing budget for 21/22 by £75 million which will deliver a sustainable budget position.

The SNP has ended automatic early release, meaning that long-term prisoners who pose an unacceptable risk to public safety will serve their sentence in full. And thanks to tough community sentences, the reconviction rate has been reduced to its lowest level in 21 years.

The SNP has also invested £75 million in support for victims over the past five years.

Supporting the police system in Scotland to protect vulnerable people, tackle crime, and work with communities for a safe, protected and resilient Scotland is one of the SNP’s key priorities. The party claims it will protect the police resource budget in real terms for the entirety of the next parliament.

The SNP aims to work with leaders and partners in the police and wider society to improve the diversity of Police Scotland and enhance the quality of data across the justice system, to better understand and serve the needs of all communities.

The impact of this dominant idea on the support of and electoral performance of the SNP.

The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS 2018-19) of more than 5,500 adults – which includes incidents not reported to the police – shows that people are less likely to experience crime than in 2008-09 and they feel safer in their communities.

One-in-eight (12.4%) adults in Scotland experienced crime in 2018-19, compared to one-in-five (20.4%) in 2008-09 – a rate that remains lower than England and Wales with an equivalent figure of 14.9%. The proportion of adults experiencing violence has fallen from 4.1% in 2008/09 to 2.2%.

Former Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf said: 

“While it is encouraging that Scotland remains a safer place than a decade ago, with fewer victims of crime, there is no room for complacency.

Our firm focus on early intervention and prevention, including through widely-recognised anti-violence initiatives such as the Scottish Violence Reduction Unit, No Knives Better Lives and Medics Against Violence, have been, and continue to be, critical to our efforts to keep crime down and communities safe.

It could be the case that this track record on law and order contributed to the successful electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 election. When people feel and can see that funding has been allocated to essential public services, such as the police, they may feel safer and this may have an impact on their voting behaviour.

The SCJS results suggested the public was generally fairly confident about the operation of the justice system, with 78% sure it allows for a fair trial.

However, less than half (47%) were confident about its efficiency and just 39% thought appropriate punishments were given to offenders.

A majority (58%) said the police were doing a good or excellent job in their local area, a percentage which has remained unchanged since 2014/15 but has fallen from 61% in 2012/13.

Crime is a crucial issue and there is a widespread belief that law and order policies have a significant impact on voting behaviour. It could be said that a political party with a strong track record on reducing crime nationally is likely to be regarded as a party representing stability and security.

High crime rates suggest an unsafe community, which impacts people’s quality of life and may deter public and private investment or improvements and reduce the residential desirability of an area.

The results of the May 2021 election show that support for the SNP had grown since the 2016 election. The Edinburgh Central and Ayr constituencies swung from Conservative to SNP. These constituencies represent the extremes of the most and least deprived areas of Scotland, according the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020 (SIMD).

The swing from the Conservative Party in both constituencies (Ayr had been a Conservative strong hold since 2000 and Edinburgh Central from 2016. Edinburgh Central was Ruth Davidson’s (former Scottish Conservative leader) constituency) could have been attributable to the SNP’s commitment to reducing reoffending rates, improving diversity in Police Scotland and real reduction in violent crime. 

TASKS

1. Summarise the SNP’s dominant idea surrounding law and order.
2. Give a detailed example of an SNP policy that relates to this dominant idea.
3. How significant was this dominant idea in the electoral performance of the SNP in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election? You should use data to support your argument. 
4. Are there other interpretations (excluding the law and order dominant idea) of the reasons for the electoral success of the SNP?

You should attempt the following 12-mark extended response question from the 2018 Past Paper:

Analyse the impact of the dominant ideas of a political party on its electoral performance.

You can find more details and guidance here.